Originally published September 20, 2019 @ 10:11 pm

Usually I try to keep politics out of my blog, but this time I just can’t resist. A few days after Trump fires Bolton for being too tough on Iran (among other reasons), the supposedly Iranian-backed somebodies launched a daring and devastating attack, crippling Saudi Arabia’s oil production.

Bolton appears to be vindicated. Trump looks stupid (more so than usual). US shale oil producers get a nice boost from spiking oil prices. Aside from its interesting timing, here’s what bothers me about this attack on the Saudis.

Somehow, this ragtag “strike force” of little drones and shabby “cruise missiles” made with NATO-sourced components flies over the most sophisticated integrated air defenses in the world (well, outside of Russia, of course). It is just easier to list the US weapons not currently deployed in the Middle East: Captain America. Everything else is there.

To be specific, we’re talking about close to a hundred MIM-104 Patriot (everything up to PAC3) deployed throughout Saudi Arabia, German-made Oerlikon Skyshield, older US-made MIM-23 Hawk, Spada 2000. The list of air defense systems deployed in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Kuwait seems endless. Add to that the combined air defenses of the US Navy vessels in the region and one would expect a veritable iron dome over the world’s premier gas station.

And yet, here we are: Saudi Arabia’s oil monopoly ablaze – courtesy of a few shitty drones. With Bolton’s abrupt departure from the White House, there was a glimmer of hope of some sort of a negotiated deal between Washington and Tehran. Not anymore – somebody wants a war. Badly.

True, there are forces in Iran who don’t want to further negotiate with the US. They feel the US should abide by the previously negotiated agreements. They also think negotiating with Trump is at best a waste of time. Having said that, provoking an all-out-war with an opponent you cannot hope to defeat seems shortsighted. Too much so, if you ask me. Hijack a tanker here and there – that’s more like it. But not undermining global oil supply.

There are parties to this conflict who can’t accept any peaceful resolution to the US-Iran standoff. Those parties will greatly benefit from the attack on Saudi Arabia, while risking very little. Some of those parties are going through very turbulent elections, while under a crazy wife and all sorts of criminal investigations. What’s left to lose? If things don’t go his way very soon, he’ll end up out of power and, very likely, in jail shortly thereafter.

And yet, somehow, this had to have been a joint effort: how else were they able to evade all those ships, planes, radars, and missiles? Can you think of another guy who may get kicked out of office and end up in jail? Exactly.

Trump called this a “false-flag” operation. But the entire point of launching a “false-flag” attack is to point the finger at someone else. It’s not a “false-flag” operation when every bit of debris recovered from the site implicates you. Unless, of course, this was someone else’s false-flag operation.

Look at this photo. Does this look like a vertical stabilizer of a cruise missile with over 500-km range or a handle from a zinc mop bucket?

Are we supposed to believe that this little POS with its pusher prop and a couple of kilos of payload flew hundreds of kilometers and evaded hundreds of SAMs to lay waste to Saudi Arabia’s oil industry? Let’s not be so goddamned stupid.